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Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Nuclear "Leaks" in INDIA ....

Mishaps At Nuclear Plants in INDIA

  • 1987 Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu Refuelling problem in fast breeder test reactor damages the reactor’s core. Plant shut down for two years.
  • 1989 Tarapur, Maharashtra Radioactive leak from reactor. Repairs take over a year.
  • 1992 Tarapur, Maharashtra A malfunctioning tube causes a leak of 12 curies of radioactivity
  • 1992 Kota, Rajasthan Fire in 4 pumps threatens cooling system
  • 1993 Bulandshahar, UP Fire in steam turbine at the Narora Power station damages the heavy water reactor
  • 1994 Kaiga, Karnataka Dome collapses while under construction
  • 1999 Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu Four tonnes of heavy water leaks, exposing workers to radioactivity
  • 1999 Tarapur, Maharashtra Tube failures result in de-rating of the reactor
  • 2001 Kota, Rajasthan Turbine blade failures, cracks in end shields, leaks in the moderator heat exchanger.
  • 2009 Kaiga, Karnataka 50 workers fall ill after drinking water contaminated by tritium, a radioactive isotope of hydrogen.
Case Against N-Power
  • Critics say nuclear power is the most dangerous. The risk of an accident cannot be ruled out.
  • Storing and treating nuclear waste is tricky
  • Radioactive material from plants can be used for weapons
  • N-power plants run on uranium, supplies of which may be limited
And For It...
  • It is a viable "green"alternative to fossil fuels. It’s also environment-friendly.
  • With limited energy resources the world needs nuclear energy
  • Strict safety norms can ensure there are no accidents at plants
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has ordered an immediate technical review of safety systems at India’s nuclear plants, while mandarins and scientists from the Indian nuclear establishment have scrambled to dispel worries among the public of any likelihood of an emergency. But concerns had been gaining solidity after deals to set up mega N-power plants were finalised with the Americans, the French and the Russians recently. With international collaboration, India aims to boost its present production capacity of nuclear energy from 4,780 megawatts to 63,000 in about two decades. However, many are apprehensive since some of these new individual plants have combined generation capacities of 10,000 MW, compared to the few-hundred-MW ones presently in operation. Worse, the sites chosen for setting them up are often in zones officially designated as earthquake-prone and potentially vulnerable to tsunamis.

There haven’t been major accidents so far, but several small mishaps repeatedly put claims of safety at Indian nuclear plants under scrutiny. In August 2003, leakage at a nuclear reprocessing plant at Kalpakkam exposed six workers to harmful radiation. Likewise, in November 2009, around 50 employees at the Kaiga power plant in Karnataka were exposed to radiation when they drank water from a contaminated cooler. And last May, in a major accident, one scrap dealer died when radioactive material (Cobalt-60) from a Delhi University lab ended up in Mayapuri, a Delhi market for metal scrap. It was a violation of the law that says all radioactive material ought to be disposed of safely under supervision from the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board.

Among the nuclear power plants on the anvil is the one at Jaitapur, coastal Maharashtra. It will house reactors from the French firm Areva and shall have a combined capacity of 10,000 MW. But in 20 years, as many as 92 quakes have been recorded here, with the severest of them  in 1993 measuring 6.2 on the Richter scale. The region is officially seismically marked as Zone III—Zone V being the worst category

Even people who have earlier been with the nuclear establishment are raising concerns. P.K. Iyengar, former chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission of India, says Indian nuclear scientists have indeed successfully built and operated pressurised heavy water reactors under the size of 400 MW, but that the new imported ones involve “untested” technologies and are of much larger scales at 1,600 MW. “My advice to the government would be to not jump into 1,600 MW reactors from just 400 MW and place six of these together in one spot that is exposed to possible earthquakes and tsunamis. This raises several safety infrastructure requirements that have to be properly evaluated,” he says.

Recent events in Japan have indeed shaken the faith of many who pray at the altar of nuclear energy. In an article for a business daily, even Shyam Saran, who was India’s top negotiator for the Indo-US nuclear deal, has said the “nuclear renaissance” could be dead if effective corrective measures are not taken up jointly by countries like India, China and Japan, where growth in nuclear energy generation is supposed to be among the highest. “The three countries should take the lead to follow up on their initiatives (promised at a Washington meet in 2010) and establish a collaborative effort to ensure the safe and less risky development of nuclear power in the 21st century.” The fate of nuclear renaissance, as Saran argued, may well now depend upon the success of their efforts.

Source :- Outlook India Magazine


Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Numbers in Budget-Analysis...

Projected improvement in the fiscal deficit -- 4.6% of gross domestic product (GDP)

What Does Fiscal Deficit Mean?

When a government's total expenditures exceed the revenue that it generates (excluding money from borrowings). Deficit differs from debt, which is an accumulation of yearly deficits.

Now, consider these facts to show how unrealistic this is....

Growth in total expenditure is projected at 3.4% for 2011-12, compared with 18.7% growth in 2010-11. Since the budget assumes that nominal GDP will increase by 14% in 2011-12, growth in government expenditure is far below the increase in nominal GDP. Given the government’s track record, curbing expenditure to such an extent is extremely unlikely.

The finance minister says that subsidies in 2011-12 will be lower by Rs. 20,583 crore than the amount spent on subsidies in the current fiscal. Though oil prices are high, the petroleum subsidy is lower by almost Rs. 15,000 crore. Although the government plans to introduce a right to food Bill, it has kept the food subsidy figure flat. Even the fertilizer subsidy is budgeted at a lower level. Apart from subsidies, guess how much this government for the ‘aam aadmi’ is spending under the head “social security and welfare”? Budgeted expenditure is Rs. 3,401 crore in 2011-12, while they spent Rs. 18,427 crore this fiscal. Either the ‘aam aadmi’ tag is hot air, or the numbers are bound to go up.

What about capital expenditure? The outlay for total capital expenditure in 2011-12 is lower than in 2010-11, but the finance minister says that part of the revenue expenditure is for the creation of capital assets. Taking that into account and after adjusting for capital expenditure on defence, the rate of growth in capital expenditure works out to 23.5%, which is good. Unfortunately, the budget does not give the amount of grants for creation of capital assets in 2009-10, so we do not know what the growth rate has been this fiscal and whether the projected growth rate is achievable. Interestingly, the increase in total capital expenditure, without taking the grants for creation of capital assets into consideration, was a huge 44.6% in 2010-11. By that reckoning, although the 23.5% growth looks impressive, it’s actually quite a deceleration from government capital expenditure in the current fiscal.

Consider also that, in spite of such a huge growth in government capital expenditure in the current fiscal, the trend on gross fixed capital formation this year hasn’t been encouraging. According to the third quarter GDP numbers, growth in gross fixed capital formation has been decelerating steadily—it was 25.7% in the first quarter, 17.8% in the second and a mere 6% in the third quarter.

On the receipts front, the projection of growth in tax revenue for 2011-12 is 17.9%, well below this fiscal year’s growth of 23.5%. With a nominal GDP growth of 14%, that should be achievable.
The rally in the markets on Monday was, therefore, a relief rally, relief that the finance minister has, at least, done no harm. As the heroic assumptions behind the budget projections for 2011-12 sink in, even the relief may fade away.